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SUMMARY:UPSE_PCED Seminar “Room to Respond”
DESCRIPTION:\n\nHAPPENING ON WEDNESDAY, September 30, 2026. 4:00 PM, at the Elizabeth Yu Gokongwei Lecture Room (UPSE Room 114)\n\n🎓 UPSE-PCED Friday Seminar, featuring Dr. Justin Raymond S. Eloriaga, an economist at the International Monetary Fund – Shanghai Center. Before his current post, he was a Visiting Instructor at the Department of Data and Decision Sciences (DSci), Emory University in Atlanta, Georgia, and an Assistant Professorial Lecturer at the School of Economics, De La Salle University, and a Central Bank Associate and Data Analytics Specialist at the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas.\n\n🧠📚💡Lecture Title: “Room to Respond”\n\nAbstract: When a financial crisis strikes, governments with room to act are believed to escape with smaller recessions, and one number dominates the assessment of that room: the ratio of public debt to GDP. Across 140 systemic banking crises since 1976, we find the ratio matters less, and differently, than the advice assumes. It adds nothing to crisis prediction once credit-boom symptoms are accounted for, and its association with severity is narrow, concentrated in advanced economies at long horizons and above 90 percent of GDP, while in emerging market and developing economies the average penalty at those horizons is demonstrably small, though tail outcomes are estimated less precisely. What debt does predict, strongly, is the response.\n\nAdvanced economies entering a crisis with one standard deviation more debt tightened their budgets by more than four percentage points of GDP relative to low-debt peers. We therefore construct two indices, the transparent Policy Buffers Index and the outcome-based Effective Space Index, which carry information the ratio alone does not.\n\n📝 Please register using the links below or by scanning the QR codes in the poster:\n📍Onsite: tinyurl.com/jznz8cjk ( http://tinyurl.com/jznz8cjk )\n📍Zoom: tinyurl.com/2ys9zjk3 ( http://tinyurl.com/2ys9zjk3 )\n\nWe’d love to see you there!\n\nSource: UP School of Economics Facebook\n
URL:https://alum.up.edu.ph/events/upse_pced-seminar-room-to-respond/
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