“Degenerative AI and Labor Displacement in the Global South: Evidence from Philippine Business Process Outsourcing”

HAPPENING ON THURSDAY, October 1, 2026,10:00 AM, via Zoom
🎓 UPSE-PCED Webinar, “Degenerative AI and Labor Displacement in the Global South: Evidence from Philippine Business Process Outsourcing”
.
🧠📚💡Abstract: Exported services have become for labor-abundant countries what manufacturing once was: a development path that absorbs large numbers of workers into internationally traded production. Generative AI performs many of the tasks these economies export, raising the possibility of labor displacement.

I examine whether this displacement has begun in the Philippines, the economy most dependent on this development path, by combining pre-ChatGPT occupational composition with occupation-level observed AI usage from the Anthropic Economic Index and tracing labor market outcomes as U.S. client firms adopt AI. Employment growth slows in the most exposed provinces, industries, and municipalities, amounting to roughly a quarter million foregone jobs by mid-2025.

The adjustment occurs through reduced hiring rather than layoffs: wages and hours do not change. Displaced workers enter unemployment, and the traditional adjustment through overseas migration does not offset these losses.

Speaker: Dr. Nico Ravanilla is an associate professor of political science at the UC San Diego School of Global Policy and Strategy. With his work spanning the political economy of development, governance and policy analysis, Ravanilla focuses on improving governance by improving the quality of the elected government in developing democracies.

Methodologically, he designs randomized experiments and searches for natural experiments to answer causal questions relevant to his research. Heavily focusing his research in Southeast Asia, particularly the Philippines, Ravanilla also broadly applies the theoretical insights and policy lessons of his research to other countries in the developing world. Ravanilla recently completed a postdoctoral fellowship at the Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center at Stanford University.

📝 Please join us by using the link below or scanning the QR code on the poster:
📍Zoom: https://tinyurl.com/6yhjn5u5
Meeting ID: 817 0047 2343
Meeting Passcode: 599197

Source: UP School of Economics Facebook