UPSE-PCED Seminar “The Macroeconomics Effects of AI Uncertainty”

Happening on Wednesday, 26 August 2026. 4:00 PM via Zoom.

🎓 UPSE-PCED Seminar featuring Mr. Juan Rufino M. Reyes, a PhD candidate in Economics at King’s College London (KCL) and a researcher affiliated with the Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE). His research focuses on macroeconomics, time series econometrics, monetary policy, and artificial intelligence (AI). He is currently a PhD intern at the Bank of England (BoE), where he conducts research on the macroeconomic effects of AI. Prior to his doctoral studies, he worked as a researcher at the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas and as a lecturer at De La Salle University.

🧠📚💡Abstract: This paper examines the macroeconomic effects of uncertainty surrounding artificial intelligence (AI) using a novel text-based AI Uncertainty Index. AI uncertainty shocks are identified in an SVAR using an external instrument constructed from positive residual movements in the index, after controlling for broader economic news about AI. Focusing on the US economy, the results show that an increase in AI uncertainty generates contractionary effects concentrated in equity prices, wages, and hours worked, while employment and industrial production display muted responses. This transmission pattern differs from conventional uncertainty shocks, which produce broader contractions in employment and real activity. AI uncertainty may operate through an automation threat. A more valuable option to automate strengthens the bargaining position of firms and lowers wages before adoption occurs. Industry-level estimates reveal heterogeneous labour market adjustments across industries related to differences in AI exposure.

📝 This is purely via Zoom. Please register using the link below or by scanning the QR code in the poster:
📍 https://tinyurl.com/ms96yp7x

Source: UP School of Economics Facebook