“Measuring inflation expectation revisions without panel data”

HAPPENING ON FRIDAY, March 27, 2026. 4:00 PM, at the Judith R. Duavit-Vasquez and Class of 1984 Lecture Room (UPSE 105)

🎓 UPSE-PCED Friday Seminar, the third seminar in the series this March, featuring researchers from the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Research Academy.

🧠📚💡Abstract: This paper proposes a group-based proxy for revisions to household inflation expectations in settings where only repeated cross-section data are available. The method replaces an individual’s unobserved prior expectation with the lagged average expectation of the individual’s demographic group (constructed using gender, age, income, and education).

The paper applies the approach to the Philippine Consumer Expectations Survey (CES) for 2010Q1–2024Q2 and studies how the estimated “revision” measure responds to biannual changes in prices of 14 food and energy goods. The paper also implements a two-way equivalence testing validation strategy: (i) comparing group-based estimates to an overall mean-based proxy with Philippine data, and (ii) comparing group-based estimates to rotating panel-based revisions using the U.S. Michigan Survey of Consumers (MSC).

The resulting revisions using the CES data show sensitivity to price changes in specific food and energy goods. The equivalence testing finds that the group-based coefficients are valid as they are different from an overall sample mean-based revision. Results using the MSC data show that our proxy is valid as the proxy for lagged expectations and revisions exhibit strong correlation, minimal errors, and negligible bias with their corresponding true values. – with Cymon Kayle Lubangco and Mark Holmes

📝 Please register using the links below or by scanning the QR codes in the poster:
📍 Onsite: https://tinyurl.com/32wdr5t8
📍 Zoom: https://tinyurl.com/3ukrjjp8

👀 We’d love to see you!

Source: UP School of Economics Facebook