UP Mathematicians Develop Algorithm to Simulate Monkeypox Spread and Raise Awareness

By: Maria Alexandra Marmol

In a major stride towards enhancing global epidemic preparedness, Drs. Victoria May Mendoza and Renier Mendoza of the UP Diliman College of Science Institute of Mathematics (UPD-CS IM) have provided key findings on the dynamics of monkeypox spread. In collaboration with South Korean researchers, the team developed an innovative algorithm to investigate the pivotal role of self-reporting and contact tracing in the early stages of monkeypox transmission via simulations.

The stochastic simulation process illustrating the possible mitigation or spread of infection depending on whether the primary case self-reports or not. (Photo credit: Ko et. al., 2023)

Their findings, published in the Journal of Medical Virology, showcased that the most crucial element affecting the size of an outbreak and its potential duration is the behavior of the primary case—that is, the infected person carrying disease into a community, and whether or not they report their status for medical attention.

The study followed as a result of a sudden monkeypox outbreak in non-endemic countries in May of 2022. Although the majority of the infected had had no history of travelling to the endemic areas of central and western Africa, the disease continued to spread, and more and more cases were still being reported worldwide.

In South Korea, however, the first case of an individual diagnosed with monkeypox had immediately self-reported in June 2022. After travelling to Europe and returning in the same month, the primary case informed the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency (KDCA) of his symptoms and contact history. Subsequently, there were no other recorded secondary infections of monkeypox within the country.

To study this scenario and the other factors affecting the potential outbreak of monkeypox in a non-endemic country, the team used a mathematical model based on Gillespie’s stochastic chemical kinetics.

Stochastic models are quantitative techniques that take into account random variables when predicting possible outcomes. While these have commonly been used to analyze the effects of other infectious diseases, this marked the first time that a stochastic model was used to simulate the spread of monkeypox in a non-endemic country.

In this manner, their algorithm considered random fluctuations in human behavior and subsequent delayed contact tracing. They then set up eight scenarios for their study, running 100,000 simulations in each to better understand the significance and impact of the primary case’s self-reporting or lack thereof.

Through these simulated outbreaks, they projected the average numbers of infected individuals depending on whether the primary case self-reported or not. In the scenario wherein the primary case self-reported, the number of infected individuals only increased by 11%.

But in the scenario wherein the primary case did not self-report, thereby further delaying contact tracing, the number of infected individuals increased by up to 40%.

The large difference in results served as both clear evidence and cautionary tales of the dangers of unreported cases. By understanding the impact of the primary case’s and infectees’ behavior, the study provides a more intuitive analysis that healthcare authorities may use as guiding information in the management and detection of possible monkeypox outbreaks in the future.

However, the researchers believed that one of the many factors dissuading people from seeking medical help—therefore greatly affecting attempts to mitigate disease—was stigma.

“The social media coverage about monkeypox spread directly or indirectly generates racist and homophobic stereotypes that worsen stigma,” they explained in their paper. They emphasized that approaches to encouraging self-reporting should be based on rights and evidence to avoid situations of hidden infected cases.

“(…) healthcare authorities must ensure confidentiality of confirmed cases and individuals under investigation, and access to health services. Moreover, prompt case finding and information campaigns must be conducted,” they urged.

The World Health Organization (WHO) now intends to replace the term “monkeypox” with “mpox” due to the racist and stigmatizing language surrounding the disease online following the 2022 outbreak. The virus itself is transmittable either through animal-to-human or human-to-human contact with bodily fluids or any contaminated material. For the 2022 outbreak, the symptoms were largely flu-like, with rashes that started around the genital area—but unlike the rashes typical to monkeypox, they appeared more similar to measles or other noninfectious conditions.

For interview requests and other media inquiries, please contact: [email protected]

CPH Alumni Share Success Stories, Highlight Mentorship in “Kwentong Alumni” Series



In celebration of its 97th founding anniversary and its 59th anniversary as a SEAMEO TROPMED Regional Centre, the University of the Philippines Manila College of Public Health (CPH) launched the “Kwentong Alumni” forum series on February 20, 2024 at the Emilio T. Yap Auditorium in the College of Pharmacy.

This series provided a platform for CPH alumni to impart their inspiring stories, experiences, and journeys in their respective fields, offering valuable insights to students about life after graduation. The inaugural event featured CPH alumni as speakers, including Luceli C. Cuasay, DrPH, MPH, Epidemiologist/Biostatistician Research for Health, Houston, Texas, USA, and Frances Rose E. Mamaril, MPH, Director IV, UHC Health Services Cluster – Technical Office, Department of Health.

Source: University of the Philippines Manila Facebook

College of Science Students Voice Out Concerns at the CS-Wide Student Consultation

By Harvey Sapigao

CS students at the CS-Wide Student Consultation. (Photo credit: Leandro Sampang)

Tight academic calendar schedules, ineffective reading breaks, and slow responses to mental health needs are among the pleas of CS students in the student-led CS-wide consultation held at the National Institute of Physics Auditorium on February 12, 2024.

The student-led event, organized by the CS Student Council (CSSC), was an avenue for CS students to raise issues on the academic calendar, reading breaks, learning modes, and student welfare. “It’s important to gather these sentiments as we gear forward to a much better system and policies in the future,” CSSC Chairperson Zedwin Sta. Monica said.

One of the most common sentiments of students was the tight academic calendar schedules. The first-semester schedule, from September to January, only included a few days of holiday break. Some expressed concern that it had been too short to justify spending expensive travel fees to return home to their provinces. A few chose not to make the trip at all and used the break to catch up on requirements instead.

A few students suggested that a first-semester schedule of August to December, and a second-semester schedule of January to May, would provide for a better academic year where students can enjoy the holiday break without needing to worry about their academics.

Another sentiment of students is the ineffective reading break. “Parang reading nalang siya, wala nang break,” one student said, alluding to the deadlines and exams scheduled immediately after the reading break, which forced students to instead use the time to finish requirements and prepare for exams.

The one-week reading break, the students suggested, should be separate from the 16-week semester schedule to avoid compressing academic workloads and give students a genuine week to recharge.

Lastly, a few voiced out the need for a faster response on the psychological services of the University. One student recalled her experience of having to wait two months for a response from PsycServ, or UPD’s psychological services.

They suggested giving more funding to mental health services, that one guidance counselor should be available for each institute, and that the CS wellness center should be made active again.

A total of 55 undergraduate and graduate students from different institutes attended the CS-wide student consultation. “The discussion was successful because the participants are very insightful and participative in their focus group discussions,” Sta. Monica said.

The CS Administration will review the student’s concerns and present them at the next college assembly and university council meeting. “We also plan to aid the CS Admin, should they craft position papers, amendments to the policies, etc.” Sta. Monica added.

For interview requests and other media inquiries, please contact: [email protected]

UP Physicists Present Network Science Research at the House of Representatives

By Harvey Sapigao

Dr. Reinabelle Reyes and Dr. May Lim at the House of Representatives. (Photo credit: House Committee on Visayas Development)

Dr. Reinabelle Reyes and Dr. May Lim of the UP Diliman National Institute of Physics (UPD-CS NIP) presented their research on transport network efficiency at the recent House Committee on Visayas Development meeting on February 6, 2024.

Together with independent researcher JC Albert Peralta, Dr. Reyes and Dr. Lim used a 300-year-old math discipline called network science to model transport network systems during relief operations. They applied their model to the Visayas transport network, where they discovered that Northern Samar is the most vulnerable to relief operation delays.

Read more about their research in the press release here: https://science.upd.edu.ph/up-physicists-improve-phls-disaster-response-with-network-science/

Their research opens novel ways for improving relief operations and aids policymakers in decision-making and strategic planning. Attendees of the meeting at the House of Representatives included committee leaders and members of the Visayas Region, including Hon. Karen Lolita Javier, Committee Chair and 2nd District of Leyte Representative; Hon. Francisco “Kiko” Benitez, 3rd District of Negros Occidental Representative; Hon. Anna Victoria Veloso-Tuazon, 3rd District of Leyte Representative; Francisco “Sonny” Romuar III, Committee Secretary; and Atty. Cherry Pastor-Dalauiadao, Committee Staff.

Leaders of the Visayas Region, together with Dr. Reyes and Dr. Lim. (Photo credit: House Committee on Visayas Development)

At the meeting, they discussed the need to decentralize and distribute resources such as food and key equipment to all congressional districts to mitigate delays in relief operations. They also emphasized the necessity of building transportation infrastructure in areas with no existing road networks.

“It was our first time at the House of Representatives and, though it was a bit intimidating at first, I believe in the end, we made the most of the opportunity given to us to share our work and learn from the perspectives of the House committee members, who are representatives and influential leaders for Visayas,” Dr. Reyes said on their experience.

“Doing scientific research is a very focused activity and involves discussion mostly among our small group of collaborators (and peer reviewers),” Dr. Reyes continued. “So having this opportunity to take the fruits of this work to the highest levels of leadership in the country is quite fulfilling at a different level.”

The research team aims to continue working on their research, developing an open-source, user-friendly web app that lets the public simulate different transport network systems. Dr. Reyes and Mr. Peralta will present their work at the upcoming PyCon PH 2024 conference on February 25 and 26, 2024.

For interview requests and other media inquiries, please contact: [email protected]

UP Baguio receives donation from UP Vanguard Baguio-Northern Luzon Chapter





The UP Baguio receives a generous donation from the UP Vanguard Inc. Baguio-Northern Luzon Chapter as part of their anniversary/homecoming event. They donated a nebulizer set, gun-type thermometer, pulse oximeter, vitamins, dehumidifier and Php.5000.00 worth of art materials and school supplies.

The University of the Philippines Baguio, specifically the UP Baguio Day Care Center, would like to extend its appreciation and gratitude to the UP Vanguard Inc. Baguio-Northern Luzon Chapter for their generous donation. Your support will undoubtedly make a significant difference in enhancing the learning environment and well-being of our students.

Thank you for your kindness and generosity.

More photos here.

Source: University of the Philippines Baguio Facebook

Alumni Batch Bluechips ’97 Reunite after 20 years







UP Visayas College of Management (UPV CM) Batch ’97 held their first grand reunion last December 29, 2023 at the UPV CM Lobby.

Almost a hundred of UPV CM Batch ’97 alumni from BS Accountancy, BS Management, and BS Business Administration (Marketing) went back to the CM grounds to reunite with classmates, friends, and former professors. This includes former CM Dean and former UPV Vice Chancellor for Administration, retired professor Mary Ann T. Gumban, retired Judge Daniel Amular, Prof. Mariel Elizaga, former UPV Office of Alumni Relations Director Prof. Benmar P. Panaguiton, and current CM Dean Prof. Christopher B. Honorario.

The batch enjoyed a full day with a “fun walk” to the Iloilo Esplanade, a thanksgiving mass, and an array of local food kiosks which included one for Alimodian delicacies. There was also a grill fest, a lunch, and a dinner buffet that everyone enjoyed. The day was capped with a 90s & 2000s jam session.

Written by: GC T. Castro, UPV OAR, with sources from Mr. Ken Lerona, UPV-CM Batch ’97
Photos courtesy of Mr. Ken Lerona, UPV-CM Batch ’97

More photos on UPV OAR Facebook

Source: UPV Office of Alumni Relations Facebook

Top 10 publications of UPD College of Science in 2023



In 2023, about 1 in 20 studies produced by the Philippines came from the UP Diliman College of Science (UPD-CS). With a total of 368 studies across all scientific disciplines, UPD-CS studies accounted for more than half of the total publications produced by UP Diliman. This number comes as no surprise since the College is home to 211 Ph.D faculty members. But beyond the numbers, UPD-CS has published groundbreaking research in many prestigious research journals.

Here are the Top 10 studies published by UPD-CS scientists in journals with high Impact Factors (IF)*:

1. Shedding Light on Mysterious Superconductors (IF: 41.2)

Superconductors allow electricity to pass through with no resistance. Previously, it was believed that when excessive electrons are removed from a superconductor, known as “overdoping,” the material would behave in accordance with the Bardeen–Cooper–Schrieffer (BCS) theory. However, Dr. Miguel Sulangi of the National Institute of Physics and collaborators from the Netherlands, Japan, China, and the USA showed that this is not the case for a mysterious type of superconductor called cuprate superconductors, challenging the long-held belief that BCS theory governs overdoped superconductors. Cuprate superconductors were discovered in 1986 but physicists have yet to uncover all its secrets.

Read the press release here: https://science.upd.edu.ph/upd-cs-nip-physicist-co-authors-groundbreaking-research-on-mysterious-superconductors/

Title: Puddle formation and persistent gaps across the non-mean-field breakdown of superconductivity in overdoped (Pb,Bi)2Sr2CuO6+δ
Journal: Nature Materials
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41563-023-01497-1

2. Applying Einstein’s Concepts of Relativity to Exotic Particles (IF: 16.6)

Einstein’s Theory of Relativity claims that two events can only influence one another if they are inside each other’s spacetime area called the light cone. Borrowing this concept, Dr. Gennevieve Macam of the National Institute of Physics worked with an international team of researchers to explain how two exotic particles called Weyl fermions interact. Their study is the first to describe Weyl fermions in terms of spacetime concepts, demonstrating how two physics disciplines – condensed matter physics and high-energy physics – are fundamentally connected.

Read the press release here: https://science.upd.edu.ph/beyond-einstein-pinay-physicist-investigates-exotic-subtonic-particles/

Title: Causal Structure Of Interacting Weyl Fermions In Condensed Matter Systems
Journal: Nature Communications
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-37931-w

3. History of Single-celled Predators (IF: 15.9)

Single-celled organisms, like the protists Acanthamoeba and Dictyostelium, use metals to kill bacterial prey. Exactly how these organisms evolved is the focus of the study by Dr. Windell Rivera and collaborators from China. They provided a timeline for the evolution of metal-poisoning protists, from the moment protists were created to the time they adapted to the environment and acquired the ability to use metals in killing their prey.

Title: A Brief History Of Metal Recruitment In Protozoan Predation
Journal: Trends in Microbiology
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tim.2023.11.008

4. Identifying First Bacteria Colonizers on Plastics (IF: 13.6)

Many types of bacteria live on plastics left in the environment. But for diverse colonies to thrive, a group of bacteria, called primo-colonizers, must first prime the plastics to make them habitable for other types of bacteria. Justine Marey Bitalac, Norchel Corcia Gomez, and Dr. Deo Florence Onda of the Marine Science Institute, together with Dr. Nacita Lantican of UP Los Baños, identified these primo-colonizers and described how they change the structure of plastics. Their study helps elucidate how plastics degrade in the environment and opens possibilities on how to solve the growing plastic pollution problem.

Title: Attachment Of Potential Cultivable Primo-Colonizing Bacteria And Its Implications On The Fate Of Low-Density Polyethylene (LDPE) Plastics In The Marine Environment
Journal: Journal of Hazardous Materials
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhazmat.2023.131124

5. Simulating the Spread of Monkeypox (IF: 12.7)

Drs. Victoria May Mendoza and Renier Mendoza of the Institute of Mathematics proved the importance of self-reporting and contract tracing in preventing epidemics. Together with South Korean scientists, they simulated how self-reporting and contract tracing affect the spread of monkeypox in non-endemic regions. They found out that an unreported case can infect about five to ten times more people than a self-reported case, while a delayed contract tracing can increase the infected people by up to 40%.

Title: Estimation Of Monkeypox Spread In A Non-Endemic Country Considering Contact Tracing And Self-Reporting: A Stochastic Modeling Study
Journal: Journal of Medical Virology
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/jmv.28232

6. Classifying Seaweeds in the Philippines (11.5)

Seaweeds such as the milyon-milyon, tambalang, and kab-kab are abundant in the Philippines, making the country one of the leading seaweed farming industries in the world. Despite this, Philippine seaweeds are undocumented. Bea Crisostomo, Zae-Zae Aguinaldo, Lourie Ann Hinaloc, and Dr. Michael Roleda of the Marine Science Institute established the taxonomy and distribution of different seaweeds in the Philippines using knowledge from local farmers. Their study provides a database of seaweeds that can be used for conservation efforts.

Title: The Diversity Of Eucheumatoid Seaweed Cultivars In The Philippines
Journal: Reviews in Fisheries Science & Aquaculture
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/23308249.2022.2060038

7. Tropical Cyclones and its Threat to Food Security, Health, and Biodiversity (IF: 11.1)

Damages brought by tropical cyclones produce a cascading effect on food security, health, and biodiversity. In a perspective paper by Dr. Rene Abesamis of the Marine Science Institute and collaborators from Chile, Japan, Switzerland, and Norway, they explained that tropical cyclones can damage roads, agricultural infrastructure, and grazing lands, which affects food production. The destruction of tropical ecosystems also affects food security, which in turn produces health problems such as micronutrient deficiency. The authors urge researchers to develop tools that can aid in policy-making and governments to coordinate closely in a collaborative effort to curb the effects of tropical cyclones.

Title: Impacts Of Tropical Cyclones On Food Security, Health And Biodiversity
Journal: Bulletin of the World Health Organization
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.2471/BLT.22.288838

8. Tracking Human Settlers in the Holocene Period Using Genetics (IF: 11.1)

By analyzing almost two decades’ worth of genomic data, Jae Joseph Russell Rodriguez of the Natural Sciences Research Institute and international researchers traced how humans migrated around the world and how they facilitated the spread of language and agriculture about ten thousand years ago. In Southeast Asia, their study suggests that human settlers in the region, referred to as Austronesians, first migrated from China to Taiwan, then moved southward to the Philippines, Indonesia, and Papua New Guinea. Using sophisticated boating technology, Austronesians were then able to reach islands as far as Madagascar and Hawaii.

Title: Genomic Perspectives On Human Dispersals During The Holocene
Journal: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2209475119

9. Water-purifying Nanoparticles (IF: 9.9)

As water pollution becomes an ever-more pressing issue, we are in dire need of technologies that can purify water. Dr. Michelle Regulacio of the Institute of Chemistry collaborated with scientists from China to create a nanocomposite that can get rid of water contaminants with the help of light. The nanocomposites, made up of zinc oxide and carbon, can easily cling to organic dyes and bacteria and, using energy from light, decompose or kill them. The nanocomposites are cheap and simple to manufacture, offering a cost-effective wastewater treatment system.

Title: Hydrophilic ZnO/C Nanocomposites With Superior Adsorption, Photocatalytic, And Photo-Enhanced Antibacterial Properties For Synergistic Water Purification
Journal: Journal of Colloid and Interface Science
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcis.2023.06.019

10. Marine Pollution and Its Effects on Southeast Asian Biodiversity (IF: 9.8)

Southeast Asia is one of the most biodiverse regions in the world while also contributing significantly to marine pollution. Yet the region is underrepresented in studies that focus on the effects of marine pollution on biodiversity. In their review paper, Dr. Lemnuel Aragones of the Institute of Environmental Science and Meteorology and partners in Southeast Asia investigated why this is the case. They found out that these sorts of studies are complicated by language barriers, sociocultural limitations, and difficulties in examining species.

Title: Interactions Between Marine Megafauna And Plastic Pollution In Southeast Asia
Journal: Science of The Total Environment
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.162502

In addition, here are the top studies published by UPD-CS-affiliated authors in high IF journals:

Using Algorithms to Model Social Behaviors (IF: 11.25)

Algorithms such as machine learning (ML) are better at classifying social responses than conventional statistical tools. That’s what Dr. Armando Apan of the Institute of Environmental Science and Meteorology (IESM) and collaborators from Nepal concluded in their research that looked upon the perspective of Nepalese people on energy consumption. ML models of public perceptions can aid in policy-making, planning, and implementation.

Title: Application Of Machine Learning To Assess People’s Perception Of Household Energy In The Developing World: A Case Of Nepal
Journal: Energy and AI
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.egyai.2023.100303

Examining Ecosystem Services in the Himalayas (IF: 11.1)

Services from nature like water supply, crop production, and habitat quality are called ecosystem services. Ecosystem services have unique relationships with one another. For example, when farmers convert forests into farms to increase crop production, the habitat quality will decrease. These unique relationships are the research focus of Dr. Armando Apan of the IESM and his partners in Nepal. They looked into how each ecosystem service changes with respect to one another and examined how this affects the ways of living in the Himalayas.

Title: Understanding Production Possibility Frontiers And Utility Values Of Ecosystem Services In The Himalayas: An Analysis Of The Supply-Demand Divide
Journal: Journal of Cleaner Production
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2023.138725

Why Renewable Energy Sources are Failing in Nepal (IF: 9)

The threat of climate change urges countries to transition to renewable energy sources, but developing countries such as Nepal struggle to do so. Dr. Armando Apan of the IESM and collaborators from Nepal examined the reasons and learned that solar and wind technologies shut down because of poor planning and fund discontinuation. Dr. Apan and collaborators emphasized the need to tackle the issue using “bottom-up” approaches that consider local contexts rather than “top-down” approaches that only look at the issue as mere technological transfers.

Title: Rationalizing donations and subsidies: Energy ecosystem development for sustainable renewable energy transition in Nepal
Journal: Energy Policy
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113570

* The metric Impact Factor (IF) measures the average number of times research papers are cited. For example, a journal with an IF of 9 means that, on average, research papers published in that journal are cited 9 times.

For interview requests and other media inquiries, please contact: [email protected]

Highlights of UP Padayon’s Report on UP Alumni Activities from October to December 2023

The UP Padayon Public Service Office recently released their October-December 2023 reports showing the various public service activities of UP Constituent Universities (UP CUs). These are highlights from the different alumni groups of each UP CU.

UP BAGUIO

UP alumni organizations such as UP Baguio Alumni Volunteers and Friends (UPAVF) offered legal assistance to the general public.



UP Medical Alumni Society in America (UPMASA) arranged Neurographica Art Therapy to promote mental health.



UP Alumni Association in British Columbia (UPAABC) initiated a scholarship program.

Photo from UPAABC website

UP Baguio University Student Council in collaboration with Sigma Delta Pi Sorority (EDT) and Sigma Kappa Pi Fraternity (EKT) Alumni Association – UP Baguio Chapter held a “Kapihan” event for students.



UP LOS BAÑOS

The Office of Alumni Relations, the UPLB Alumni Association (UPLBAA), and the UP College of Agriculture Class of 1960 initiated the Pili Drive Legacy Project, a project that aims to adorn the iconic Pili Drive with more pili trees.



Read more about the project on the UPLB website

UP MANILA

The UP Manila College of Medicine ’98, UP Medical Alumni Association, and UP Manila College of Medicine Postgraduate Institute of Medicine partnering in the last quarter of 2023 to provide the public with several educational webinars covering various medical updates and themes.

Read More about the UP Med Webinar


Visit the UP Med Webinars Facebook page

Read the other CUs’ Report
UP Cebu
UP Diliman
UP Mindanao
UP Visayas
***

UP Padayon Public Service Office relies heavily on each CU’s social media and website for their report. If there are initiatives that are not posted but would like to be included in their report, please get in touch with them at [email protected].

UPLB Office of the Student Housing (OSH) in collaboration with the UP Alumni Association in New York (UPAA-NY) inaugurates Makiling Residence Hall (MAREHA) Learning Hub

Representing UPAA-NY, former UP President Emerlinda Roman joined UPLB officials, students, and staff at the opening of the MAREHA Learning Hub.
The hub was envisioned to be a co-working space for studying and leisure reading among students and staff staying at the upper campus.

UPLB celebrated the fruits of its linkages with the alumni and industry today, January 23.

The Office of the Student Housing (OSH) inaugurated the Makiling Residence Hall (MAREHA) Learning Hub, a project in collaboration with the UP Alumni Association in New York (UPAA-NY).

Source: University of the Philippines Los Baños Facebook